Utopia / Reality

Silent Lion · May 5, 2016 at 5:55 AM Official Post

What do you think the world should look like in a hundred+ years, if you project forward from today?
Assuming the optimistic future in which things continue to improve, we don't blow ourselves up or die of some disease, and that as technology and society develop we are successful in fixing or overcoming the downsides that come with them. What would that future look like?
It's rather broad, but let's take a couple of examples.

The internet has improved things in many ways. However, the dark web remains a free-for-all of organised crime and a factory for the suffering it produces. If things go perfectly, how will that be fixed/overcome? Will the authorities be able to track everything that goes on through the dark web in a way that is impossible now? Will that be the end of internet anonymity, and will that be the end of everything that makes the internet great? Is there another way out?

Automation. As our supermarkets introduce self-checkouts, our banks have self-service machines, and let alone all the shopping and banking we can do from our phones, there will be less need for such a large army of traditional staff at the physical buildings. Working hours will decrease, as they have been doing for decades. Taken to a logical endgame, if things continue to automate, will the most numerous jobs be those involved in computer programming or maintenance of the machinery of automation? Will people with those skills be considered more worthwhile than those with other more traditional skills? How will that be overcome?

'zilla · May 9, 2016 at 5:45 PM

I believe there will be changes in course, so let me try to project along those angles, assuming a (likely or not) utopian scenario.

Society as a whole will have matured, it will have gained humility and wisdom. We are able to find our places in the greater circles of life, because those ways of life that didn't achieve that, have ceased to exist. Today's cities are nowhere near the steampunk predictions of the early 20th century, and the future will have more of this difference. We will have found a way to interact with our technology that furthers our quality of life, and for the most part it leaves us to live that life. The political landscape consists of ideologies we haven't yet imagined, worked out through the great upheavals of the 21st century. Life will be mostly the same, good and bad, just different.

There is no rush for growth, and economies are circular, dependent on undepletable resources. Agriculture is fully automated and compact, and a lot of humanity lives in the next stage of cities. These are more dense, but car-free and built for humans to thrive in. Construction and industry are done in sophisticated, automated ways that optimize the use of resources. This is not a problem because (in a utopian future) the rebellions against the wealthy were successful; the traditional system of labor was overthrown, and the self-sustaining technological backbone of modern society was made a common inheritance of the people. Basic necessities are given to all, who work for improving this system and further the thriving of humanity and other species on the planet.

It will be an incredibly exciting time, as humanity devotes itself to transcendance towards worthy stewardship of the Earth. We spend our time making up for the mistakes and wounds of the past, redeeming our grandparents (well, us). Science blooms and so we become the space-faring race at long last.

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In a darker reality? A lot of people will die. We are many people with many differences, and decline and dwindling resources will have a sorrowful impact. The US will break apart, Europe will go through a new dark age, our carefully built systems and markets will fragment and fall apart. New powers will rise and fall, frequently, as the world realigns, as it always has. Our current peak of technology will slip away from us, as the planet's restraints force us into perpetual decline and despair. In short, our exponential civilization will fall as fast as it rose, as is the fate of any diverging population.

Some will stand beside and watch and be untouched, and they will tell their grandchildren the stories, as they have always told their children stories. This will be the story of the great sickness of the crazy man, who climbed to the moon and the stars and became a giant who ate all the animals and drank all the water. In the end, his many sons and daughters ate themselves in their great hunger and were gone.

Humanity will have found a place in the greater circles of life, but not in the way everyone hoped.

Silent Lion · May 10, 2016 at 3:47 AM Official Post

Poignant. If I could be dig a little deeper, a few practical questions:

Quote from 'zilla

Agriculture is fully automated and compact, and a lot of humanity lives in the next stage of cities.

In many parts of the world, and previously in the 1st world, being a farmer was a bleak subsistence life of hard work and suffering. In the modern west, however, we see a different image emerging. A lot of farmers derive great satsifaction from working with animals and plants across great acres of countryside - I fancy it for myself sometimes - and many are increasingly affluent. Would fully automated farming be an end to that life? Could life in the cities be so good as to override our ancestral connection to more natural environments, and the psychological health benefits that contact with the great outdoors brings? Not to mention the innate desire of many of us to have open space, away from other human beings. Are these things accounted for, or demonised, or eugentically forced out of us?

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These are more dense, but car-free and built for humans to thrive in. Construction and industry are done in sophisticated, automated ways that optimize the use of resources.

Isn't that already what cities are increasingly designed to be? And construction and industry already does that, to the best of its abilities, because it makes economic sense. Are you simply saying that this will continue, or that there will be some greater change?

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This is not a problem because (in a utopian future) the rebellions against the wealthy were successful; the traditional system of labor was overthrown, and the self-sustaining technological backbone of modern society was made a common inheritance of the people. Basic necessities are given to all, who work for improving this system and further the thriving of humanity and other species on the planet.

Complex human civilisation requires organisation, which requires hierarchical responsibility. Will those with more responsibility naturally accumulate power and position, as is our nature, as has been attested to by history? Who, for example, co-ordinates the repair of automated farming equipment? And, innevitably, the co-ordinators become the rulers of that which they co-ordinate. And somebody has to co-ordinate the grand decisions of society - people do not organise themselves meaningfully on their own. This objection is not meant to be a barrier - I think shared ownership probably is the best path to happiness. But do you have any thoughts about overcoming these risks?

_LS_ · May 10, 2016 at 4:20 AM Official Post

Dumb ol' 'zilla always manages to turn Internet arguments into a kind of poetry.

I imagine that increasing automation will make things worse for awhile. Jobs will become ever more scarce, and the poor classes will become ever larger. But ultimately that's unsustainable. The poor will force a change. Eventually automation will lead to a world where--at the very least--everyone receives a minimum standard income. Some people are still needed for jobs, and still do jobs, and those people get more money than the rest of us, but the majority of the population will not need to work for their money.

Of course, without proper education and direction, a life without work will create people with lazy minds, which I really hope we can avoid. I want to see people using their newfound freedoms to enrich themselves and grow human culture, but that's far from a guarantee.

I imagine artificial intelligences will be created, we will reach the technological singularity, and the advancement of technology will outpace the human ability to understand it. But that will be okay, because the emergent intelligences will be our friends. They will help us to move forward. There may be conflicts, but I do not believe these new creatures will want to use violence to resolve conflict with us. We will just have to learn to grow together.

Expanding out from our world is necessary. We should be throwing every ounce of available resources towards that goal already, and I think over time we will start to realize that truth. We're seeing the seeds of that even now, with the energetic (if often misinformed) love of science from the millennial generation.

'zilla · May 10, 2016 at 5:01 AM

Rural life
My dream is also living simply off the land without undue hardship. I would like to see that utopia. In a hundred years' time, there might be some of this, but I reckon the world outside of cities will be too harsh for it to be widespread. Indigenous peoples will probably thrive then, but the hippies will run to the cities for protection. This will benefit the planet, as rural life is both disruptive to the ecosystem and very energy inefficient. My imagination of the city, however, is a place that actually allows for this desire to be fulfilled.

Future cities
Our current cities designate about 20% of their area to traffic, if not more. Cities are usually fast-paced nexuses where huge volumes of people and goods stream by continuously, from and to the outside. The next step, in this whimsical imagination of mine, is not really a city in this respect, but more of a conglomeration of local communities. There will be farms, there will be forests, most of the beautiful landscapes that humans appreciate, and there will be a chance for solitude, but not to the extent that our current western individualism would sometimes prefer. The city is not built around roads and intersections at all, as both production and distribution are more decentralized, and transport is more efficient. We don't need to go far to work, to school, or to travel. Hypermobility will be dead, and the city no longer a corrosive presence to our minds and souls.

Hierarchy
The details of future ideologies, I find hard to imagine. But if there is greater maturity and wisdom, I would expect a deep understanding of the natural laws of human society. Power and wealth accumulates, and so the society must balance this out by stopping/dividing that power when it grows to a certain size. Part of this will be a reduced need for currency, and so power is not power over people's ultimate fate. There will be hierarchy of responsibility, and that responsibility should have an effect on the people in charge. Ownership.. yeah, that's a tricky one, it must be strong in order for people to take their job seriously. I wouldn't know how to best solve this, really.

Silent Lion · May 10, 2016 at 7:30 AM Official Post

Quote from LinkSkywalker

Dumb ol' 'zilla always manages to turn Internet arguments into a kind of poetry.

Amen. It's hugely enjoyable.

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Of course, without proper education and direction, a life without work will create people with lazy minds, which I really hope we can avoid. I want to see people using their newfound freedoms to enrich themselves and grow human culture, but that's far from a guarantee.

That would be my main worry for the immediate future. And given the trajectory of current advancement, I fear those with technical abilities will be more highly regarded than those with, say, people skills, or an aptitude for animals. A reverse of the bullied geek of the 80s, where the most tech-savvy will be held as unfairly superior. Less of a distant future, more of a real possibility of the next couple of decades, but hopefully something that can be overcome. And I suspect the answer to that will have a lot to do with your question of engaging the minds of those who will eventually not need to work - finding use for otherwise obsolete skills.

EDIT:

Quote from 'zilla

But if there is greater maturity and wisdom, I would expect a deep understanding of the natural laws of human society.

Call me naively positive, but I believe this will happen and is even starting to happen, not as a result of conflict or upheaval, but scientific progress. Although often slow and undramatic, the scientific method has provided us with most of the understanding that has allowed us to develop exponentially in the last few centuries. And as advancing neuroscience binds together the currently inconsistent sciences of pscychology, our understanding of ourselves can only grow. If this understanding, and the direction it will advise, can reach a certain point before anything too disastrous happens to us, the future has an actual chance of being half decent.

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Power and wealth accumulates, and so the society must balance this out by stopping/dividing that power when it grows to a certain size. Part of this will be a reduced need for currency, and so power is not power over people's ultimate fate. There will be hierarchy of responsibility, and that responsibility should have an effect on the people in charge. Ownership.. yeah, that's a tricky one, it must be strong in order for people to take their job seriously. I wouldn't know how to best solve this, really.

The only thing I can think of to aid it would be psychological profiling. In the future, where we understand human nature better, a promotion should require not only the requisite skills but a psychological profile that is compatible with extra responsibility and ownership.

Silent Lion · May 10, 2016 at 9:43 AM Official Post

[QUOTE="'zilla, post: 7168, member: 46"But if there is greater maturity and wisdom, I would expect a deep understanding of the natural laws of human society.[/quote]

Call me naively positive, but I believe this will happen and is even starting to happen, not as a result of conflict or upheaval, but scientific progress. Although often slow and undramatic, the scientific method has provided us with most of the understanding that has allowed us to develop exponentially in the last few centuries. And as advancing neuroscience binds together the currently inconsistent sciences of pscychology, our understanding of ourselves can only grow. If this understanding, and the direction it will advise, can reach a certain point before anything too disastrous happens to us, the future has an actual chance of being half decent.

[quote]Power and wealth accumulates, and so the society must balance this out by stopping/dividing that power when it grows to a certain size. Part of this will be a reduced need for currency, and so power is not power over people's ultimate fate. There will be hierarchy of responsibility, and that responsibility should have an effect on the people in charge. Ownership.. yeah, that's a tricky one, it must be strong in order for people to take their job seriously. I wouldn't know how to best solve this, really.[/QUOTE]

The only thing I can think of to aid it would be psychological profiling. In the future, where we understand human nature better, a promotion should require not only the requisite skills but a psychological profile that is compatible with extra responsibility and ownership.